Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Sovereignty rating concerns supports dollar? | OANDA Forex Blog


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Sovereignty rating concerns supports dollar?

Let's try and connect some of the dots while looking at the bigger picture. Equity markets remain somewhat resilient despite regional hotspots. Dubai being this morning's exception, which fell to a 5-month low on concerns that Dubai World is struggling to restructure its debt. S&P is about to downgrade Greece and Portugal while Moody's states that the US and UK ratings may be tested. The inexperienced and somewhat unpopular Japanese PM announced an $81b economic stimulus package to counter deflation and a surging JPY. Geithner and Bernanke continue to preach that the situation has improved, but, there is still a long to go to sustain growth. The world saviors' is supposedly China and the rest of Asia. If Europe, the USA and Japan are in so much trouble, how is it possible for these other regions to sustain their supposed current rate of growth? Something is amiss!

The US$ is weaker in the O/N trading session. Currently it is lower against 11 of the 16 most actively traded currencies in a 'subdued, yet illiquid' trading range.

Forex heatmap

Just three days after a surprising NFP print, helicopter Ben put a halt to the notion of hiking rates sooner than the already telegraphed 'extended period of time' yesterday. He conceded that the US economy has improved, but cautioned that the 'recovery remains fragile' and the jobless rate may remain 'elevated' for some time. He believes that the economy has some ways to go to be assured that the recovery will be 'self-sustaining'. His rhetoric to an Economics club in Washington was in fact rather dovish. He continues to point out that despite the general improvement in financial conditions, credit remains tight for many borrowers and the job market weak. Someone has to be realistic after Friday's movements which have seen both investors and dealers getting once again ahead of themselves. 'Elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here' he said. He believes the Fed's balance sheet will not result in higher inflation and the Fed has the tools to withdraw stimulus. Their most difficult challenge will be not how to remove stimulus, but when. The crisis showed that risk management systems were inadequate and that financial firms must improve them while at the same time regulators must overhaul their approach to supervision. Wow! and he was only attending a luncheon!

The USD$ is currently lower against the EUR +0.05%, CHF +0.07%, JPY +0.50% and higher against GBP -0.43%. The commodity currencies are slightly stronger this morning, CAD +0.05% and AUD +0.07%. The Canadian Stats Bureau must be on some sort of hallucinogen! Again no one was within driving distance with yesterday's Canadian Building permit print. The data clearly shows that supply is coming back. It was a much more bullish than expected set of permit numbers that was nearly 5 times greater (+18.1% vs. +1.1%). Is this further confirmation that the Canadian economy is recovering at an even faster pace than what's been expected? Last Friday's employment numbers also surprised (+79.1k).The loonie managed to advance for the first time in four days despite commodity prices coming under renewed pressure. Until we get confirmation from Governor Carney this morning, that rates are to remain on hold again (0.25%), the currency should be treading water. Capital Market's continue to tout June of next year as the month of the first rate increase because of fading wage gains and 'slow' economic growth. The market is beginning to question BOC Carney's tactics. His pledge to freeze record-low borrowing costs until next year may be raising the chances of a bubble in home prices!

Australia's current account deficit was much wider than expected last night (-$16.18b vs. a revised -$13.1b) and has damped market expectations for a strong GDP number next week. This and the fear that Governor Stevens will further dampen expectations for an interest rate increase after raising borrowing costs a record three-straight months to +3.75% has pushed the currency to a one week low. In the big picture, the carry-trade and interest rate dynamics continue to influence the value of the currency. In theory and technically, the currency has remained better bid on pull backs as demand for riskier assets remains robust. But, currently commodity values are the problem to the AUD advancement (0.9134).

Crude is higher in the O/N session ($74.15 up +22c). For a fourth consecutive trading session, crude had managed to fall to a new 2-month low. All on the back of the greenback surging has curbed the appeal of commodities temporarily to investors. Fundamentals continue to push the black-stuff about in a tight $6 trading range. The Saudi oil minister, al-Naimi on the weekend said that prices are in 'the right range and there is no need to reduce inventories'. OPEC meets late this month. Weekly US data continues to support the bear trade. Last week's EIA report revealed that US inventories climbed as consumption dropped. Oil inventories rose +2.09m barrels to +339.9m, w/w (highest level in 3-months). Also surprising was gas supplies surged +4m barrels to +214.1m. The market had been expecting a drawdown for crude of -400k, while gas was to increase by +700k barrels. Demand destruction is alive and kicking as weekly fuel demand slipped -2.6% on the back of refineries reducing operating rates for the 4th time in the last month and a half. It was also estimated that the 4-week moving average for total US daily fuel demand was +18.5m barrels. Other factors continue to contribute to negative price action. Technically, the markets have been paring their open positions ahead of OPEC's gathering. Secondly, a report last week on Russian output (the world's largest producer) showed that it remains at a record high for a second consecutive month. Expect the USD's direction to dictate price action medium term. Support levels look vulnerable here!

Intraday volatility saw Gold plummeted, at one point losing just under -5.5% in the last two trading session as a rejuvenating dollar convinced investors to sell the yellow metal after it printed a new record high last week ($1,227). The commodity's prices have experienced wild gyrations of $20-$40 price swings over the past few trading sessions and remains exposed to further selling pressure if the USD continues to find traction. Seller beware, despite the 'mother in-law' and anyone who can, does own this 'hot' commodity, these pull backs remain strong buying opportunities as it's 'the international currency' ($1,161).

The Nikkei closed at 10,140 down -27. The DAX index in Europe was at 5,807 up +23; the FTSE (UK) currently is 5,319 up +10. The early call for the open of key US indices is higher. The US 10-year bond eased 5bp yesterday (3.42%) and are little changed in the O/N session. Believing that the US economy is 'not' in full recovery mode despite the stellar employment report on Friday had treasuries paring some of last week's losses. Yesterday, Bernanke, prudently, continues to tout the same vein of caution about the speed of the US recovery. This week $74b of new product needs to get absorbed (3's-$40b today, 10's-$21b tomorrow and 30's-$13b Thursday). Dealers for various reasons have to date significantly cheapened up the curve. If the front end is well received (3's), the middle to the long end of the curve could experience some slippage.

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8
Today's Global
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8:15 am

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Housing Starts
158k vs. 157k
9:00 am

CAD
BOC Rate Statement
CAD
Overnight Rate
0.25% vs. 0.25%
Tentative

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NIESR GDP Estimate
-0.4%
10:00 am

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IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
49.8 vs. 47.9
6:30 pm

AUD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
-2.5%
6:50 pm

JPY
Final GDP q/q
0.8% vs. 1.2%
JPY
Final GDP Price Index y/y
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7:01 pm

GBP
Nationwide Consumer Confidence
71 vs. 72
GBP
BRC Shop Price Index y/y
0.0%
7:30 pm

AUD
Home Loans m/m
-1.8% vs. 5.1%
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Trade Balance
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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

New Zeal: US Radicals 1 Margarida Jorge

New Zeal: US Radicals 1 Margarida Jorge

Monday, October 5, 2009

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Communism vs. Capitalism


Communism vs. Capitalism


The Nature of Communism

I make no pretenses: I dislike communism. It is a noble concept, but it is one that can't work without a radical change in the human psyche, and I'm not sure I'd want to live in a world where people were, effectively, labotimized.

My personal belief is that communism, as it exists in the world today, and capitalism are the same thing. True communism doesn't, and can't, exist.

True communism depends on human nature being basically altruistic. For communism to work, the members of the society either need to be altruistic enough to want to work for the benefit of their neighbors, or they need to be forward thinking enough to see that what benefits the whole benefits themselves. They must be very far-sighted indeed, because large-scale social benefits tend to be more abstract in nature, and more difficult to recognise. In contrast, when you get your paycheck, you can buy your VCR, and there it is on your table. You can directly relate your work to the results.

If human nature is basically egoistic, then true communism doesn't work. If people are basically selfish, then they won't work for the common good, and there will be a tendancy to freeload or otherwise take advantage of the system. For communism to work in that case, you would you need to make sure that everybody was doing their fair share. You would need a system of "points", to make sure everybody is doing their part. People then work to earn points, so that they can justify receiving their share -- or else they don't get their share, or they go to jail, or they're kicked out of the community, or some other fascist reaction.

Capitalism is also a value-point system, with the "points" being capital. Therefore, communism is just a form of capitalism, only worse. It is worse because people can't get ahead -- they can still starve, but they can't get rich. I call this commu-capitalism, and it's poster child is the former Soviet Republic.

It is my belief that people aren't bad, but they are by nature selfish. I believe that people, like all animals, are organisms with an genetically programmed desire to prosper, reproduce, and expand. What we see as altruism in people is an evolved sense of mutual benefit -- I help you, you help me, we both prosper. Altruism goes out the window when the benefit is one-way. We cast off dead weight, except in certain situations. Yes, we have a social welfare system in the United States, albeit a very inadequate and ill one. I personally believe that the only reason why we have one at all is as a safety net. It is instructional to notice that we have to give tax breaks to intice charity. It is always the middle class -- the ones closer to that poverty level and more at risk of slipping into the poverty level -- who most support charity for charity's sake.

Ok, so by now you're sure I've got this black view of the human soul, but I don't think I do. I like people, and I think they are basically good, when it suits them. I think it is unfair to expect people to be willing to throw away their own health for the health of others -- it is nice and noble when it happens, but it isn't human nature. And this is why communism, as a pure concept, can't work, and always devolves into capitalism.

The Nature of Capitalism

Capitalism depends on people being basically selfish. The whole point is that, if you work hard, you can get rich, ride to the top, and do whatever (more or less) you want.

As an aside, I'd like to point out that I find this entirely ironic. The point of life is to procreate, because those organisms who's entire being is given up to that drive to procreate are the one's who's genes have the most chance of surviving. However, birth rates in the most industrialized nations is far lower than those in third-world countries, and it isn't because we can't procreate -- it is because it we don't really want to. For some reason, when we get fat and wealthy, we lose the desire to spawn. I'm guessing it is nature's way of keeping humans hungry. The true advances come from the dissatisfied, not from the comfortable.

In any case, we've evolved a system whereby, theoretically, the hardest working reap the most rewards. Only, it doesn't quite work out that way, as you'll see.

Like commu-capitalism, capitalism has its downsides. In a communism, you get points only if you contribute. However, with capitalism, people can, and do, make significant amounts money without making any significant contribution to society whatsoever. In fact, a large portion of the American economy is devoted to doing just this -- making money off of the concept of money alone. "Interest" is a good example of this. Once an entity has a certain amount of money, it can survive off the interest without providing any constructive contribution to society. I phrase it this way, because at that point it doesn't matter whether the entity exists or not. It is capable of becoming a pure consumer, rather than a producer. Banks, therefore, are leeches on the process of capitalism. They don't truely contribute to the advancement of society.

Before I let you get too far into making any assumptions about my beliefs and values, I want to make it clear: I actually like banking. I think they're absolutely necessary, for the same reasons why a true communism would never work. I'd like to have a job working on banking software. Banking is the one, truely universal industry, where your skills are always in demand. For that matter, I'd love to have the opportunity to become a leech on society. I wouldn't actually exercise the ability, but it would be nice to not have to worry about how I'm going to fund my retirement. I'm also a dedicated capitalist. However, I do believe that there is no such thing as a purely good concept, and that any idea can be abused.

So, capitalism encourages non-contributing, support structure industry. Many organizations make fortunes simply by shifting money back and forth, from one place to another. While this is all very integral to our economy, it only exists as a side effect -- it doesn't actually produce anything.

Capitalism allows people to starve. However, unlike communism, capitalism also allows people to better themselves and their situation. Capitalism also allows people to ensure a better future for their offspring, should they have any, and to contribute surplus resources to organizations that they believe in. To quote the old hack, it may not be a perfect system, but it is the best one we have.


Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Right in Two -by Tool - Lyrics

Angels on the sideline,
Puzzled and amused.
Why did Father* give these humans free will?
Now they're all confused.

Don't these talking monkeys know that Eden has enough to go around?
Plenty in this holy garden, silly monkeys
Where there's one you're bound to divide it right in two.

Angels on the sideline,
Baffled and confused.
Father blessed them all with reason,
And this is what they choose?

Monkey killing monkey killing monkey over pieces of the ground.
Silly monkeys.
Give them thumbs, they forge a blade,
And where there's one they're bound to divide it right in two.

Monkey killing monkey killing monkey over pieces of the ground.
Silly monkeys.
Give them thumbs, they make a club to beat their brother down.
How they've survived so misguided is a mystery.
Repugnant is a creature who would squander the ability
To lift an eye to heaven, conscious of his fleeting time here.

Gotta divide it all right in two.

Fight till they die over sun, over sky,
They fight till they die over sea, over air,
They fight till they die over blood, over love,
They fight till they die over words, polarizing.

Angels on the sideline again,
Benched along with patience and reason.
Angels on the sideline again,
Wondering where this tug of war will end.

Gotta divide it all right in two.

* The official lyric release has "daddy" instead of "Father."

Sunday, August 30, 2009

authoritarianism and liberty from Abelard.org

authoritarianism and liberty

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authoritarianism
and liberty

a briefing document

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Authoritarianism and liberty is an introductory document to the logic of human organisations, clarifying definitions of various (sacred) names in the discussion of modern Western politics. It is also one of a series of documents analysing dysfunctional social, or group, behaviour in modern society.
authoritarianism and liberty citizen's wage
socialist religions power, ownership and freedom
fascism is socialism corporate corruption, politics and the law
papal encyclicals and marx - some extracts British establishment interference with civil liberties during the 20th century—the example of Diana and Oswald Mosley
islamic authoritarianism
ends and means and the individual    

Index
right, left, fascist, socialist
shopping bags
a suggested clarification
role for government
'godless' socialism and clericalism

Friday, August 14, 2009

American Thinker: Barack Obama and Alinsky's Rules for Psychopaths


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September 25, 2008

Barack Obama and Alinsky's Rules for Psychopaths

By James Lewis
"... the community organizer ... must first rub raw the resentments of the people; fan the latent hostilities to the point of overt expression.'    
 -- Saul Alinsky,
Rules for Radicals


"THERE IS ONLY THE FIGHT --- An analysis of the Alinsky Model."
 -- Hillary Clinton, BA Honors Thesis, Wellesley College, 1969.

"(Barack) Obama worked in the organizing tradition of Saul Alinsky, who made Chicago the birthplace of modern community organizing...."
 -- The Nation 
A psychopath is a person without conscience; someone who constantly breaks the moral rules of the community. Saul Alinsky was a "community organizer" who found a career that fit that personality disorder. In the Orwellian upside-down world of the Left, community organizers disorganize communities. That is the meaning of revolution, to overturn whatever exists today in the raw pursuit of one's own power.

Alinsky boasted about his close alliance with Frank Nitti, Al Capone's second in command in the Chicago Mob during the 1930s. Al Capone's Mob were domestic terrorists, and not for any noble cause either.  They poisoned the Chicago politics of their era. Alinsky's close alliance with Frank Nitti tells us something crucially important today. Alinsky was also a lifelong ally of the Stalin-controlled Communist Party, at a time when Stalin was known to have murdered tens of millions of people.  He was proud of building a bridge between organized crime and the power hungry Left. That tacit alliance may continue today.

Alinsky's personality fits the definition of a psychopath -- someone who has no guilt or shame toward others. But Alinsky also discovered how to teach psychopathic behavior to college students. That is the key to his success: To persuade hundreds of thousands of ignorant young people that it is much more moral to be immoral. Or, as Bill Ayers famously said, "Bring the Revolution home; kill your parents."

Bill Ayers is now a highly influential professor of education. That is not an accident; it reflects a deliberate program of radical agitation and propaganda through the school systems. If you want to know who brought down American education, Bill Ayers is part of the answer.

A lot of the Boomer Left is marked by psychopathic behavior, in politics and in the rest of life.  That is why the actions of the Left are so shocking to many of us. 

Alinsky's disciples -- including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama -- have a warlike political style. They learned politics as war from the Master. Obama is so well-trained in Alinsky tactics that he used to teach workshops on it. That is why Obama can knowingly violate Federal law against usurping the presidential power to negotiate with Iraq before ever getting elected. Actual election to head of state by the voters means nothing, just as it means nothing to Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, who have negotiated with Syria and the Muslim Brotherhood in clear violation of law while serving in Congress. 

Teaching hatred for the normal majority is the key to power for radicals. But Alinsky taught that you can't easily hate millions of people. To do that effectively you need a one-person scapegoat to focus all your hatred on. "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it." That is the politics of personal destruction, and it doesn't matter if the target is black like Clarence Thomas, or a woman like Sarah Palin, or a severely wounded war veteran like John McCain.  

That is why Obama is now instructing his followers to "get in their faces" of those Americans who are not down for his cause.    Obama acts like a nice guy, but he is a political warmonger. He's been very clear about that: "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun." That's the language of gang war.  

Today we can see the Left's rage reaction to John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin. The New York Sun quoted one feminist saying "All of my women friends, a week ago Monday, were on the verge of throwing themselves out windows ...People were flipping out. ... Every woman I know was in high hysteria over this. Everyone was just beside themselves with terror that this woman could be our president -- our potential next president."

The "comedienne" Sandra Bernhard suggested that Sarah Palin would be "gang-raped by blacks in Manhattan" if she dared to go there. 

A British Leftist writing for Pravda (!) called "Sarah Palin - The Devil in disguise...

Sarah Palin, Mrs. Nobody know-it-all shreiking cow from Alaska, the joke of American politics, plied with a couple of vodkas ... cheap little guttersnipe ... suppose you shut up ... you pith-headed little bimbo from the back of beyond ... So next time suppose you keep your mouth shut and while you're at it, make sure the members of your family keep their legs shut too. ... "

That warlike rage has been systematically whipped up over decades by the Left. That's what college "Women's Studies" does, just as "Black Studies" is deliberately designed to whip up black rage and victimhood. Michelle Obama's Princeton thesis is a case in point.

Alinsky called ordinary Americans "the enemy." Normal people don't declare war on all of society. But Alinsky wrote in Rules for Radicals that radicals

"...have contemptuously rejected the values and way of life of the middle class. They have stigmatized it as materialistic, decadent, bourgeois, degenerate, imperialistic, war-mongering, brutalized and corrupt ... They are right ... " 

Normal, decent America is the enemy for these people.

Obama and Hillary are lifelong followers of Alinsky.  They use his tactics and ideology. That is why American politics became the politics of personal destruction when the Boomer Left came to power.  

These claims require proof; but we have been looking straight at the evidence since the first Clinton term. Bill Clinton fits the diagnostic description of psychopathic personality, now relabeled "antisocial personality' in the DSM IV, the official diagnostic manual for psychiatry. Three out of the following seven criteria nails the diagnosis:  

1. Failure to conform to social norms ...

2. Deceitfulness ... or conning others for personal profit or pleasure;

3. Impulsivity or failure to plan ahead;

4. Irritability and aggressiveness ... ;

5. Reckless disregard for safety of self or others;

6. Consistent irresponsibility ... ;

7. Lack of remorse, as indicated by being indifferent to or rationalizing having hurt, mistreated, or stolen from another.

I would give Mr. Clinton credit for Numbers 1, 2, 6, and 7, and possibly 3 (impulsivity) and 4 (irritability and aggressiveness). Dick Morris, who advised the Clintons for 20 years, describes dramatic scenes that certainly fit the description. Or Bill's inability to stick with a meeting agenda, impulsively running endless bull sessions at the White House. As for 5, his picking up women opportunistically and in a way that put his career, not to mention his family life and American security, at risk. The Monica affair showed an impulsive, reckless president who got into power by endless lying and conning.

Liberal Democrats used to be normal Americans before the Boomer Left rose to power. Hubert Humphrey and Harry Truman had a strong sense of American morality.   They despised the Stalinist Left and fought to keep them out of the Democrat Party. They were sensitive to ordinary shame and guilt, the emotions that make us civilized.  When Bob Dole asked "Where is the shame?" in the 1996 presidential election, the answer came out: Not in the modern Democrat Party. People without guilt or shame make merciless power mongers.

Normal people slow down in School Zones where kids might run across the street -- not because they're afraid of getting a speeding ticket but because they can't stand the thought of hurting kids. They don't need to cheat compulsively on wives and husbands to prove how irresistible they are. Normal people have internalized some modesty and humility, and are capable of respect and love for others. A common feature of psychopaths is the inability to feel authentic love and respect for others.

True psychopaths are often charming, seductive, and treacherous. They make natural con artists. Many psychopaths are extremely manipulative -- and what is more manipulative than stirring up hatred among victim groups to empower oneself? That is Jeremiah Wright, the diabolical Father Pfleger, James Meeks, and by his own definition of radicals, Saul Alinsky.

The worst are "malevolent psychopaths" -- people who sadistically hurt others. Hitler and Stalin, Kim Jong Il, Pol Pot, and probably many famous Western intellectuals fit the description of malevolent psychopaths. That is tragic and shocking. Historian Paul Johnson presents compelling evidence for malevolent psychopathy in the life of Jean-Paul Sartre, for example, and many others in his important book Intellectuals.  Western intellectuals have been the home team of Leftist radicalism for a century now. 

But the single most important point about Alinsky's "community organizing" strategy is that normal people can be trained to act like psychopaths: To become convinced that a "higher morality" allows them to act without conscience. As Alinsky wrote admiringly about V.I. Lenin, well known as a large-scale murder leader:

"Lenin was a pragmatist; ... he said that the Bolsheviks stood for getting power through the ballot box but would reconsider after they got the guns!" 

That is a laugh line, believe it or not.

Alinsky called this "pragmatic radicalism." He differed from his Communist friends only in being more practical and less ideological. Alinsky was a radical because it suited his personality, because it was fun, brought him power and influence, and made him feel good. He was very clear in saying that, and he inspired the Boomer Left to follow his lead. 

Alinsky dedicated Rules for Radicals:

"... to the very first radical . . . who rebelled against the establishment and did it so effectively that he at least won his own kingdom - Lucifer."

If that doesn't send a shiver down your back, you haven't been paying attention.

James Lewis occasionally blogs at dangeroustimes.wordpress.com
on "Barack Obama and Alinsky's Rules for Psychopaths"
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Monday, May 4, 2009

BehaveNet® Clinical Capsule™: Narcissistic Personality Disorder


BehaveNet® Clinical Capsule™:

DSM-IV & DSM-IV-TR:

Narcissistic Personality Disorder


Individuals with this Cluster B Personality Disorder have an excessive sense of how important they are. They demand and expect to be admired and praised by others and are limited in their capacity to appreciate others' perspectives.

Diagnostic criteria for 301.81 Narcissistic Personality Disorder
(cautionary statement)
 

A pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration, and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by five (or more) of the following: 

(1) has a grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements) 

(2) is preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love 

(3) believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions) 

(4) requires excessive admiration 

(5) has a sense of entitlement, i.e., unreasonable expectations of especially favorable treatment or automatic compliance with his or her expectations 

(6) is interpersonally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or her own ends 

(7) lacks empathy: is unwilling to recognize or identify with the feelings and needs of others 

(8) is often envious of others or believes that others are envious of him or her 

(9) shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes

Reprinted with permission from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth Edition. Copyright 1994 American Psychiatric Association

Also: narcissism

Books and Other Media:
Follow the hypertext link to purchase items.



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